Signal Performance
Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Signal Performance
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
Loading performance data...
Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
Loading performance data...
Win Rate
73.8%
545W / 194L / 6043P
Comparable outcomes: 739
Realized P&L
+316.9%
Avg: +0.1%
Sum of per-signal returns • WATCH normalized to no-bet
Profit Factor
4.61
Healthy
wins / losses ratio
Brier Score
0.015
Well calibrated
lower = better
Avg Resolution
38d
time to market resolution
Active Actionable
0
0.0% unrealized
20553 pending total
Actionable copy signals only • n=127
Brier Score: 0.015
Total Signals
127
Avg Error
21.5%
Buckets
4 / 10
Raw ML probabilities are quarantined in major categories when they collapse into unreliable sub-10% outputs.
| Category | Sample | Actual | Adj Prob | Raw ML | Conflict | Quarantine | Low-ML Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sports | 21070 | 59.8% | 57.8% | 3.2% | 38.0% | 93.6% | 59.1% |
| politics | 5080 | 60.2% | 60.0% | 4.1% | 51.1% | 94.2% | 58.1% |
| crypto | 1605 | 76.8% | 75.9% | 17.5% | 56.1% | 79.1% | 73.0% |
| iran | 1136 | 56.0% | 56.4% | 3.0% | 52.3% | 0.0% | 54.1% |
| spacex | 539 | 71.8% | 70.1% | 13.3% | 50.3% | 0.0% | 66.3% |
| finance | 476 | 67.4% | 67.1% | 15.2% | 49.0% | 0.0% | 60.9% |
COPY metrics are copy-trade results. WATCH is normalized to no-bet. AVOID and FADE are advisory cohorts.
Informational only; normalized to no-bet
Advisory signal; not directly comparable to copy-trade P&L
Copy-trade performance
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata
Los Cabos Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Corentin Moutet
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
The Memphis Classic: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Sloane Stephens
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
Vancouver: Kayla Day vs Mai Hontama
The Memphis Classic: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Sloane Stephens
The Memphis Classic: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Sloane Stephens
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Vancouver: Kayla Day vs Mai Hontama
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Vancouver: Kayla Day vs Mai Hontama