Signal Performance
Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Signal Performance
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
Loading performance data...
Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
Loading performance data...
Win Rate
60.7%
1996W / 1290L / 9401P
Comparable outcomes: 3286
Realized P&L
+484.8%
Avg: flat
Sum of per-signal returns • WATCH normalized to no-bet
Profit Factor
1.78
Healthy
wins / losses ratio
Brier Score
0.013
Well calibrated
lower = better
Avg Resolution
12d
time to market resolution
Active Actionable
0
0.0% unrealized
2218 pending total
Actionable copy signals only • n=119
Brier Score: 0.013
Total Signals
119
Avg Error
19.4%
Buckets
4 / 10
Raw ML probabilities are quarantined in major categories when they collapse into unreliable sub-10% outputs.
| Category | Sample | Actual | Adj Prob | Raw ML | Conflict | Quarantine | Low-ML Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sports | 23965 | 60.3% | 58.5% | 3.6% | 36.2% | 92.9% | 59.8% |
| politics | 2396 | 58.0% | 59.2% | 4.9% | 51.0% | 93.1% | 55.3% |
| crypto | 1048 | 73.6% | 74.6% | 20.5% | 50.4% | 74.4% | 68.1% |
| finance | 346 | 69.7% | 66.6% | 19.2% | 44.2% | 0.0% | 62.5% |
| iran | 338 | 53.3% | 54.0% | 4.9% | 37.6% | 0.0% | 49.7% |
| ai | 95 | 74.7% | 72.5% | 10.2% | 57.9% | 0.0% | 71.4% |
COPY metrics are copy-trade results. WATCH is normalized to no-bet. AVOID and FADE are advisory cohorts.
Informational only; normalized to no-bet
Advisory signal; not directly comparable to copy-trade P&L
Copy-trade performance
Copy-trade performance
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12?
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
Knicks vs. Spurs
Spread: United States (-1.5)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5