Signal Performance
Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Signal Performance
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
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Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
Loading performance data...
Win Rate
60.6%
1368W / 888L / 6030P
Comparable outcomes: 2256
Realized P&L
+435.2%
Avg: +0.1%
Sum of per-signal returns • WATCH normalized to no-bet
Profit Factor
2.04
Healthy
wins / losses ratio
Brier Score
0.088
Well calibrated
lower = better
Avg Resolution
N/A
time to market resolution
Active Actionable
2
0.0% unrealized
1569 pending total
Actionable copy signals only • n=60
Brier Score: 0.088
Total Signals
60
Avg Error
25.3%
Buckets
3 / 10
Raw ML probabilities are quarantined in major categories when they collapse into unreliable sub-10% outputs.
| Category | Sample | Actual | Adj Prob | Raw ML | Conflict | Quarantine | Low-ML Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sports | 25924 | 61.5% | 59.0% | 6.1% | 34.6% | 83.9% | 60.1% |
| politics | 2669 | 64.5% | 63.1% | 10.9% | 37.2% | 75.9% | 54.3% |
| crypto | 1598 | 71.2% | 68.8% | 14.3% | 46.9% | 76.3% | 65.7% |
| iran | 356 | 53.9% | 55.7% | 5.3% | 38.5% | 0.0% | 49.4% |
| finance | 187 | 77.0% | 70.4% | 23.4% | 38.5% | 0.0% | 68.0% |
| ai | 41 | 68.3% | 53.9% | 5.0% | 26.8% | 0.0% | 63.9% |
COPY metrics are copy-trade results. WATCH is normalized to no-bet. AVOID and FADE are advisory cohorts.
Informational only; normalized to no-bet
Advisory signal; not directly comparable to copy-trade P&L
Copy-trade performance
Copy-trade performance
Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
La Bisbal: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Rebeka Masarova
Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich
Saint-Malo: Diane Parry vs Yasmine Kabbaj
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti
Mauthausen: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Choinski
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
La Bisbal: Caroline Werner vs Carlota Martinez Cirez
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Huzhou: Diletta Cherubini vs Ekaterina Reyngold
Huzhou: Diletta Cherubini vs Ekaterina Reyngold
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Huzhou: Diletta Cherubini vs Ekaterina Reyngold
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Saint-Malo: Elsa Jacquemot vs Bianca Andreescu
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx
La Bisbal: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Sara Sorribes Tormo
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx
Ostrava: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Frederico Ferreira Silva
La Bisbal: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Sara Sorribes Tormo
Rockets vs. Lakers
Rockets vs. Lakers
Ducks vs. Oilers
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals
Ostrava: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Frederico Ferreira Silva
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)
La Bisbal: Varvara Lepchenko vs Laura Pigossi
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx