Signal Performance
Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Signal Performance
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
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Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
Loading performance data...
Win Rate
73.8%
545W / 194L / 6043P
Comparable outcomes: 739
Realized P&L
+316.9%
Avg: +0.1%
Sum of per-signal returns • WATCH normalized to no-bet
Profit Factor
4.61
Healthy
wins / losses ratio
Brier Score
0.015
Well calibrated
lower = better
Avg Resolution
38d
time to market resolution
Active Actionable
0
0.0% unrealized
20457 pending total
Actionable copy signals only • n=127
Brier Score: 0.015
Total Signals
127
Avg Error
21.5%
Buckets
4 / 10
Raw ML probabilities are quarantined in major categories when they collapse into unreliable sub-10% outputs.
| Category | Sample | Actual | Adj Prob | Raw ML | Conflict | Quarantine | Low-ML Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sports | 21088 | 59.8% | 57.8% | 3.2% | 38.0% | 93.6% | 59.1% |
| politics | 5080 | 60.2% | 60.0% | 4.1% | 51.1% | 94.2% | 58.1% |
| crypto | 1605 | 76.8% | 75.9% | 17.5% | 56.1% | 79.1% | 73.0% |
| iran | 1136 | 56.0% | 56.4% | 3.0% | 52.3% | 0.0% | 54.1% |
| spacex | 539 | 71.8% | 70.1% | 13.3% | 50.3% | 0.0% | 66.3% |
| finance | 476 | 67.4% | 67.1% | 15.2% | 49.0% | 0.0% | 60.9% |
COPY metrics are copy-trade results. WATCH is normalized to no-bet. AVOID and FADE are advisory cohorts.
Informational only; normalized to no-bet
Advisory signal; not directly comparable to copy-trade P&L
Copy-trade performance
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Vancouver: Jiajing Lu vs Caroline Dolehide
Vancouver: Jiajing Lu vs Caroline Dolehide
Vancouver: Jiajing Lu vs Caroline Dolehide
Vancouver: Kayla Day vs Mai Hontama
Vancouver: Kayla Day vs Mai Hontama
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Counter-Strike: regain vs Voca (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier Playoffs
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Magdalena Frech vs Ann Li
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Magdalena Frech vs Ann Li
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs Marsborne (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier Playoffs
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Tomas Etcheverry