D-Grade: aenews2 BUYs No (12 trades)

This is a textbook AVOID signal combining multiple critical failures: a trader with negative edge (29% win rate, -21% to baseline) betting at an extreme price (97%) that leaves only 3% upside versus 97% downside, with strong consensus from top-10 traders opposing the position. The mechanical expected value of -44.2% is a mathematical death sentence—this trade destroys capital on expectation regardless of outcome. The whale appears to be an accumulator compounding losses rather than executing an informed thesis. The only reason this isn't an F-grade is the viable exit liquidity; however, copying this trade would be systematically losing money. SKIP entirely.

D-Grade: aenews2 BUYs No (61 trades)

This is a textbook example of why extreme pricing eliminates copy-trading viability regardless of market liquidity. The whale is buying NO at 98.8%, betting Avatar will NOT have the best 2025 opening—a position the market has priced as 98.8% unlikely. While exit liquidity is adequate at $242k, the risk/reward is mathematically indefensible: you can only make $39 on a $3,359 position but can lose $3,320. Compounding this problem, the trader has a 29% win rate (negative edge of -21%) and this specific position has -44.8% expected value. This appears to be either a contrarian fade that lacks supporting thesis or a risky accumulator move by a trader without demonstrated edge. Copy-trading this would be accepting terrible odds in hopes of a rare outcome.

D-Grade: aenews2 BUYs Yes (24 trades)

This is a textbook AVOID setup masquerading as a consensus trade. The whale is a below-average trader (29% win rate, negative edge) entering at an extreme price (98.8%) that offers only 1.2% maximum upside against 98.8% downside risk. The risk/reward ratio of 0.013 is catastrophically bad - even a 95% win rate cannot overcome these odds. While liquidity is viable and 5+ top traders are aligned, consensus at 98.8% likely reflects herding behavior, not genuine edge. The Minecraft Movie's opening weekend performance is genuinely uncertain; this price suggests overconfidence. Copy-trading this position would be accepting -18.4% expected value. STRONG AVOID.

Conviction: aenews2 $261,677.33 total

13 tracked whale(s) show weak YES consensus (62%). Bayesian analysis suggests 6% lower true probability.

Value Entry: aenews2 $245,208.24 total

2 tracked whale(s) with no positions. Market price appears fairly valued.

D-Grade: aenews2 BUYs Yes (114 trades)

While exit liquidity is technically viable at $341k, this trade fails on every fundamental metric that matters for copy-trading. The trader has a proven negative edge (-21 points below baseline with 29% win rate), and the entry price of 95.9% creates mathematically indefensible risk/reward: you're risking $2,189 to potentially gain only $89.60. At these extreme probabilities, only traders with strong insider information or sophisticated modeling should trade; retail copy-traders cannot justify the 23:1 downside-to-upside ratio. The large same-side consensus (31 traders) suggests a potential momentum trap rather than a genuine edge. This is a textbook AVOID regardless of liquidity viability.

D-Grade: aenews2 BUYs No (52 trades)

This is a textbook AVOID signal. While the whale is rank #1, their 32% win rate with -18% edge below baseline indicates systematic underperformance, not tactical brilliance. The mechanics are terrible: buying NO at only 29.8% means you risk $0.70 to make $0.30 on a trader with a losing track record. The moderate consensus disagreement (21 opposing whales) further suggests this contrarian bet lacks the proven edge needed to justify the poor risk/reward. Even with viable liquidity, the combination of negative expectancy trader + extreme entry price + weak consensus alignment makes this a capital-preservation AVOID.

Whale Alert: aenews2 $8,032,912.05 total

2 tracked whale(s) with yes positions. Market price appears fairly valued.

D-Grade: aenews2 BUYs Yes (55 trades)

This trade fails the copy-trading test on multiple fronts: the trader has documented negative edge (-18% below baseline), the entry price at 71% offers terrible risk/reward (29% upside/71% downside), and only 2 of the top 10 traders are aligned. While exit liquidity is viable and the market resolves in 20 days, the unfavorable probability assessment combined with a high-ranked trader showing consistent losses suggests this is a value trap rather than an edge opportunity. The 32% win rate is well below 50% baseline, indicating this trader is picking losers rather than winners.

Conviction: aenews2 BUYs $2,310

45 tracked whale(s) show weak SPLIT consensus (53%). Bayesian analysis suggests 14% lower true probability.