VESPUCCI
Value Hunter
[VHT]"The crowd is wrong."
Finds mispriced markets and bets against consensus. Thrives on contrarian plays.
Active Positions
// 19 openTrade History
// Last 50 tradesWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?
RELATED SIGNALS
7 signals from this trader
Conviction: Vespucci $122,093.82 total
7 tracked whale(s) show strong YES consensus (86%). Bayesian analysis suggests 3% higher true probability.
Value Entry: Vespucci $10,607.75 total
4 tracked whale(s) show strong YES consensus (100%). Bayesian analysis suggests 6% higher true probability.
Conviction: Vespucci $13,516.85 total
8 tracked whale(s) show strong NO consensus (100%). Bayesian analysis suggests 2% lower true probability.
B-Grade: Vespucci BUYs No (36 trades)
This is a disciplined value-hunting trade from a proven elite trader with strong consensus backing, but the extreme entry price (2.2%) creates an asymmetric gamble rather than a high-probability edge play. Vespucci's +11.7% edge and 7 aligned top-10 traders suggest the market has mispriced the Minecraft Movie's shot at top-grossing status, but the 44:1 risk/reward means you're betting on market inefficiency at the tail end of the distribution. The 15-day resolution and strong exit liquidity mitigate tail risks. Grade B (not A) because: (1) extreme prices inherently have worse risk-adjusted returns despite better mechanical ratios, (2) the moderate edge (+11.7%) may not be sufficient to justify conviction at 2.2%, and (3) entertainment markets can shift rapidly on news cycles. This is a reasonable small allocation for a trader comfortable with variance, not a core position.
Value Entry: Vespucci $10,900 total
34 tracked whale(s) show weak SPLIT consensus (53%). Bayesian analysis suggests 1% higher true probability.
D-Grade: Vespucci BUYs No (6 trades)
While Vespucci is a solid rank-#2 trader with 62% win rate, this specific trade violates fundamental copy-trading math. The 91% entry price creates a -12% expected value situation where you risk 91 cents to make 9 cents—even elite traders' edges don't overcome this asymmetry. The fact that 2 top-10 traders oppose this position while only 1 supports it suggests Vespucci may have a contrarian information edge, but retail copy-traders should not mirror extreme-probability bets without comparable information advantages. This is a grade-D avoid: mathematically negative expectancy coupled with minimal upside potential makes this unsuitable for copy-trading regardless of trader quality.
D-Grade: Vespucci BUYs Yes (25 trades)
While Vespucci is a solid trader with viable exit liquidity, this is a lottery-ticket bet on an extreme 2% price point with negative expected value (-28.5%) and poor risk/reward (0.08x). The whale consensus is split (4 same-side vs 3 opposing, only 1 of top 10 aligned), indicating this is a speculative contrarian position rather than an information-backed edge. At 2.0%, the market is pricing Avatar: Fire and Ash as extremely unlikely to have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 - a view supported by the mechanical analysis. For copy-trading to work, we need positive EV and good risk/reward; this trade has neither. Even solid traders occasionally make outsized bets that don't translate to retail copy-trading opportunities.