SCANWHALE

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RD

RDBA

🐟FISH
0xc4d1...8ce8POLYMARKET
30-Day Profit/Loss
+$183
All-Time
+$183
30D Volume
$0
Win Rate
51.61%
90 active positions - heavily diversified

Accumulator

[ACC]

"Stack. Stack. Stack."

Builds positions systematically over time. Uses dollar-cost averaging to reduce timing risk.

Frequency
Risk Tolerance
Patience
Precision
Strengths
Risk managementConsistent gainsStress-free
Weakness
Slow capital growth

Active Positions

// 20 open
Total Value$1.1M
Unrealized+$34K
18/20 profitable

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

NOEntry: 0.5¢Size: 571,827.5HIGH
+$77K
+27%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

YESEntry: 0.5¢Size: 576,024.19HIGH
$-78K
-27%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.98¢Size: 150,839.69HIGH
+$2,333
+1.58%

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.91¢Size: 40,000LOW
+$3,344
+9.19%

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.91¢Size: 40,000LOW
+$2,850
+7.8%

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.98¢Size: 36,631.06LOW
+$495
+1.37%

Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

NOEntry: 0.94¢Size: 31,308.13LOW
+$1,559
+5.27%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.9¢Size: 30,683.64LOW
+$2,884
+10.44%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.96¢Size: 28,711.14LOW
+$388
+1.41%

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.94¢Size: 26,677.65LOW
+$1,457
+5.81%

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.92¢Size: 26,082.02LOW
+$1,752
+7.28%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.82¢Size: 25,634.11LOW
+$4,473
+21.28%

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.81¢Size: 23,924.76LOW
+$4,310
+22.2%

Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.91¢Size: 14,999.99LOW
+$1,200
+8.79%

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?

NOEntry: 0.56¢Size: 13,616.76LOW
+$1,688
+22.1%

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

YESEntry: 0.47¢Size: 9,641.05LOW
+$4,284
+95.44%

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

NOEntry: 0.95¢Size: 7,069.6LOW
+$248
+3.7%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

NOEntry: 0.91¢Size: 6,331.51LOW
+$102
+1.77%

Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31?

NOEntry: 0.71¢Size: 5,910.8LOW
+$1,566
+37.32%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

NOEntry: 0.94¢Size: 6,038.98LOW
-$121
-2.14%

Trade History

// Last 25 trades
25 BUYS0 SELLS
$370K vol
Dec 16
1 trades
BUY

Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?

3,484.19@0.48¢
$1,672.41
06:05 AM
Dec 15
1 trades
BUY

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?

13,616.76@0.56¢
$7,639
05:44 PM
Dec 11
7 trades
BUY

Will Rangers FC win on 2025-12-11?

8,717.59@0.8¢
$6,973.82
06:50 PM
BUY

Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

14,874.57@1¢
$14,815.07
09:05 AM
BUY

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

1,910.14@0.98¢
$1,879.58
08:59 AM
BUY

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

26,462.7@0.99¢
$26,303.92
03:16 AM
BUY

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

93,786.31@1¢
$93,353.49
02:11 AM
BUY

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

8,471@0.94¢
$7,940.33
02:01 AM
BUY

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

28,375.02@0.95¢
$26,929.8
12:11 AM
Dec 10
9 trades
BUY

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

8,699.16@0.97¢
$8,420.79
11:34 PM
BUY

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

4,507.89@0.97¢
$4,357.14
11:34 PM
BUY

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

3,205.62@0.07¢
$224.39
10:06 PM
BUY

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

19,501.52@0.91¢
$17,746.38
10:05 PM
BUY

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

1,905.55@0.91¢
$1,734.05
10:04 PM
BUY

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

13,345.47@0.9¢
$12,010.92
10:04 PM
BUY

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

6,625.29@0.89¢
$5,896.51
10:04 PM
BUY

Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

21,201.83@0.9¢
$19,081.5
09:41 PM
BUY

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?

1,082.02@0.99¢
$1,068.95
09:06 AM
Dec 9
7 trades
BUY

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

52,163.32@0.98¢
$51,224.38
08:11 PM
BUY

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?

24,500@0.25¢
$6,125
08:06 PM
BUY

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

3,000.25@0.99¢
$2,964.25
07:15 PM
BUY

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

8,040.6@0.99¢
$7,944.11
09:26 AM
BUY

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

2,046.28@0.99¢
$2,019.68
09:26 AM
BUY

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

30,954.18@0.97¢
$30,149.37
05:41 AM
BUY

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

11,688.81@0.97¢
$11,361.52
05:41 AM

RELATED SIGNALS

4 signals from this trader

value_entry

Value Entry: rdba $22,917 total

14 tracked whale(s) show weak SPLIT consensus (57%). Bayesian analysis suggests 2% lower true probability.

12/15
conviction

Value Entry: rdba $132,817.13 total

3 tracked whale(s) show strong YES consensus (100%). Bayesian analysis suggests 3% higher true probability.

12/11
conviction

Value Entry: rdba $73,500 total

2 tracked whale(s) show weak SPLIT consensus (50%). Bayesian analysis suggests 1% lower true probability.

12/11
conviction

D-Grade: rdba BUYs Yes (81 trades)

This is a textbook example of why copying trades at extreme price zones fails for retail users, regardless of market liquidity. The whale is betting at 94.9% that 'another person/thing' wins TIME's Person of the Year—a statement so probabilistically extreme that it leaves almost no margin for error. With only 5.1% max upside against 94.9% max downside, the risk/reward is inverted relative to a copy-trader's needs. The trader (rank #50, 51.6% win rate) has no demonstrated edge strong enough to justify such conviction, and smart-money disagreement (2 opposing whales) suggests even experienced traders are skeptical. This is NOT a liquidity problem (exit is viable)—it's a math problem. Following unproven traders into tail probabilities is how retail copy-traders destroy capital.

12/11